2021 № 10 THE MORBIDITY DYNAMICS MODELING AS AN INFORMATIONAL BASE TO MEDICAL CARE MANAGEMENT FOR THE OVER WORKING AGE POPULATION
P u r p o s e o f t h e s t u d y : The substantiation of the need to use modeling of the dynamics of primary and general morbidity of the elderly and old population to improve the management of medical and preventive care for this age group.
R e s e a r c h m e t h o d s : analytical, modeling and mathematical-statistical methods.
R e s e a r c h b a s e . This study was conducted on the basis of the Moscow region with a population of 7,7 million people as of 01.01.2021.
R e s u l t s . Shown, that use of mathematical modeling of the morbidity rate as an information database is one of the most optimal ways for calculating and assessing the needs in the volume of medical care for specific age groups of the population. The use of a nosological approach is proposed, because it allows to assess the required volume of medical care based on the existing pathology not on existing organizational models that may change. Morbidity modeling and forecasting is designed to promote optimization of medical and preventive examinations for elderly and old people in terms of determining the necessary forces and means based on knowledge of the magnitude of the existing need.
C o n c l u s i o n . Taking into account the forecasting data, the use of the proposed models makes it possible to form an idea of the magnitude of the need and to monitor the implementation of state guarantees for the medical provision of elderly and old people.