2020 № 1 Modern methods of analysis and forecasting of time series and use in medicine
The article is a review of Russian and foreign scientific publications related to the use of methods of analysis and
forecasting of time series in medicine. 112 major publications over the past 5 years, located on the Internet resources e-library
and PubMed, are considered. Examples of the application of such methods as exponential smoothing, regression analysis,
the ARIMA method and their variants for time series analysis are shown. Various approaches to mathematical modeling of
the time series are presented. The results of the article can be used to select a method of analysis and forecasting time series
depending on the tasks.
2016 № 5 Analytical processing of databases of the implemented information systems on the example of risk factors of socially dangerous actions of patients with organic damage of a brain.
In article the possibility of use of the existing medical information systems introduced on the basis of medical institutions of the Tyumen region in studying of problems of public health is defined. On the basis of databases of the automated information system “Forensic-psychiatric Examination” the conclusions of out-patient forensic-psychiatric examination of the Tyumen region for 2005–2014 are analysed. The risk factors leading patients with organic damage of a brain to commission of socially dangerous actions are revealed. Are carried to such factors: a male, age till 30 years, the diagnosis “intellectual backwardness”. It is statistically proved that persons with this set of factors commit crimes under 159 and 161 articles of the Criminal code of the Russian Federation. The majority subexpert admit responsible a consequence. In article possible measures for primary prevention of socially dangerous actions of patients with organic damage of a brain are proposed.
2017 № 3 Analysis and forecasting of socially dangerous acts committed by psychiatric patients by dint of modern mathematical methods
The article considers the possibility of analyzing and forecasting socially dangerous acts committed by psychiatric patients by dint of modern mathematical methods. The review of modern methods of analysis and forecasting of time series is presented. An algorithm for forecasting socially dangerous acts committed by psychiatric patients according to the data of the regional forensic psychiatric expert service of the Tyumen region for the last 16 years has been developed with a total of 17967 examinations and an example of its program implementation is presented. Considered eight times of the series, the optimal model of which is selected from 188 in no less than 30 seconds. To assess the adequacy of the forecast, the model data obtained on the basis of the 15-year time series with the actual ones for 2016 were compared. All the mathematical models obtained confirmed the absence of significant differences in the Mann-Whitney U-test at significance level p = 0,05. Examples of interpretation of possible forecasts and examples of scientifically grounded management decisions are given.
2017 № 3 Portrait method as technology for development of decision making systems for diagnostics and differential diagnostics in clinical practice
Among the various technologies for the development of expert systems, the portrait method, originally pro- posed by E.V. Gubler. The authors have long used a portrait method for formalizing medical information when creating expert systems for diagnosis and differential diagnosis of diseases. When forming the knowledge base, the clinico-log- ical, expert and clinical-expert approach in the formation of a portrait of the disease is used. This article is enlightened on the description of the methodology for applying the portrait method in the development of expert systems. The features of forming the knowledge base and the algorithm of the solver work are considered