Articles with tag: «prognosis»
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2023 № 12 Basic indicators of population morbidity, including prognostic ones, in assessing the reproductive potential of the region.
The article presents the results of a study conducted to study the main indicators of population morbidity from the perspective of assessing the reproductive potential of the region. Statistical, analytical, and graphological methods were used in the work. A key factor in the reproductive potential of a region is the level of health of its population, including morbidity rates. When developing measures to stimulate the birth rate, which is especially necessary for territories with the lowest rates of population reproduction, such as the Central Federal District and, in particular, the Kostroma Region, a detailed study of the regional characteristics of the health status of the population is necessary. It was determined that, according to predictive models, the incidence rate in the Kostroma region will increase from 701.1 per 1000 population in 2020 to 768.8 per 1000 population in 2025. To identify the relationship between indicators of the birth rate and morbidity in the Kostroma region for period 2010–2020 A cross-correlation analysis was carried out to reveal not only the degree and direction of the relationship between the analyzed indicators, but also the time lag. For the Kostroma region, according to the time series under consideration, no statistically significant relationship
was found between the level of fertility and morbidity. There is a slight correlation (–0.3) between the analyzed indicators for the Kostroma region with a time lag of 6 periods, but it is not statistically significant and does not allow us to draw clear conclusions. -
2023 № 10 Development of prognostic matrices for assessing the degree of risk of physical development disorders of students of higher educational institutions.
The most significant medical and social factors served as the basis for the development of appropriate prognostic matrices in order to obtain objective and comparable indicators of the prevalence of signs, in this case, the development of deficiency or excess body weight among students. The presented tables indicate risk factors that may affect the level of a quantitatively predicted phenomenon, through the gradation of the significance of relative risk factors. These prognostic matrices allow us to assess the impact of biomedical, socio-hygienic, behavioral factors on the formation of disorders in the health of students, including physical development in a pandemic, provide an individual approach, are the basis for a program of medical and social prevention of violations in the physical development of students
at the personal and collective levels. -
2023 № 11 Prediction of the risk of an unfavorable outcome in COVID‑19 using the classification tree method, taking into account the age and number of comorbid pathology according to the infectious hospital.
Objective: to determine the probability of the risk of an unfavorable outcome using the classification tree method in patients with COVID‑19 who were treated in an infectious hospital based on the analysis of the contribution of such predictors as age and the amount of comorbid pathology.
Materials and methods. The data of outpatient records of 5304 patients who were treated in an infectious diseases hospital with a diagnosis of COVID‑19 from January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022 were analyzed. The age of the examined patients was 62 [56–66] years. Among 5,304 patients, there were 2,891 males (54,5%) and 2,413 females (45,5%). The patients were divided into age groups according to the WHO classification. The frequency of comorbid pathology was analyzed taking into account the nosological unit of the disease registered in at least 1% of the patients included in the study.
Results. In the studied sample, the elderly prevailed in a larger percentage – 46.8%. The presence of one or more comorbid pathology was revealed in the prevailing number of hospitalized – in 5,244 people (98,9%). The most common comorbid pathology in the examined patients was arterial hypertension in 2038 people (38,4%), coronary heart disease in 1997 people (37,7%) and type 2 diabetes mellitus in 1629 people (30,7%). A classification tree was constructed to predict the risk of the probability of an unfavorable outcome in patients with COVID‑19.The minimum number of observations in the parent node in the classification tree was 400 people, in the child node – 200 people. In the resulting classification tree, 8 terminal nodes were observed.
Conclusion. The probability of the risk of an unfavorable outcome in the analyzed sample of patients increases with an increase in the number of comorbid pathology and the age of patients. According to the forecast using the classification tree method, the greatest probability of risk (3,2 times) of an unfavorable outcome in relation to the general sample was among elderly persons+centenarians with more than three comorbid pathology. The developed classification tree showed a high probability of correct predictions (80%). The sensitivity of the resulting model was 77,9%, the specificity was 64,2%.