All articles by Ponomarev S. B.
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2020 № 6 On the issue of the feasibility of the im- munization informatization in penitentiary medicine
The article highlights the use of information systems in immunization as one of the important problems of the pen- itentiary and civil healthcare sectors. It analyzes the existed software systems for automated immunization management and helpes to make conclusion that the implementation of such software products into the practice of penitentiary health care should be carried out taking into account all the specifics of the organization of medical activity in the penitentiary system.
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2019 № 10 On the development of the information system for evaluating the severity of hiv infection in prisoners
Nowadays one of the most important issue is the prediction of HIV and AIDS development. The ability to evaluate in numbers the outcome of the disease (in particular the AIDS development) is of great interest. It depends on a number of systematically taken medical indicators of an HIV infected person. For to create the information system for evaluating the severity of hiv infection in prisoners it is necessary, first of all, to evaluate the link between those indicators of the patient’s condition and the development of the disease itself. The article is focused on the possibility of using correlation analysis to identify the link between the develoopment of HIV and the data of the main medical indicators, which is regularly monitored in the penitentiary system. For to achieve this goal it was formed a sample based on the data of the Russian penitentiary system.
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2023 № 11 A mathematical model for assessing the contribution of viral hepatitis to the formation of infectious penitentiary syndrome.
P u r p o s e : to study the role of viral hepatitis in the development and course of comorbid infection (disease caused by HIV, tuberculosis and parenteral viral hepatitis) in persons serving the penalty of deprivation of liberty.
M e t h o d s . The indicators reflecting the epidemic situation of tuberculosis, HIV infection and parenteral viral hepatitis in institutions of the Russian penal system were analyzed. Correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted, followed by an analysis of the quality of the obtained regression models (calculation of the coefficient of determination).
R e s u l t s . The following parameters have the maximum correlation between the predictors and the response function in this group of observations, with the subsequent exclusion of factors whose correlation with the variables involved in the calculations was higher than the correlation of these indicators with the response function: the incidence of hepatitis B per 100 thousand people (r = 0,86) [X1], the number of newly diagnosed hepatitis C patients in 2021 (r = 0,85) [X2], the proportion of newly diagnosed HIV-infected people in combination with tuberculosis and viral hepatitis (B, C, B+D), % (r = 0,85) [X3], the number of HIV patients receiving ART (r = 0,85) [X4], the incidence of tuberculosis in Pre-trial detention center (PTDC), per 100 thousand people (r=0,41) [X5], the number of newly arrested tuberculosis patients identified during the initial examination (r = 0,41) [X6]. The model was obtained: simulated mortality from HIV = –6,7 + 0,48 * X1 + 0,39 * X3 – 0,07 * X5 (R2 = 0,86). A similar model was obtained for the absolute values of the number of deaths; it involved the following parameters: the number of newly diagnosed patients with viral hepatitis B [X1], the
number of newly diagnosed patients with viral hepatitis C [X2], the number of newly diagnosed HIV patients in combination with tuberculosis [X3], the number of patients burdened by premorbid background (injecting drug users) [X4]: The number of deaths from HIV= –0,36 + 0,06 * X1 + 0.02 * X2 + 0.36 * X3 + 0,03 * X4 (R2 = 0.91).
C o n c l u s i o n . The association of HIV mortality rate with viral hepatitis and tuberculosis incidence is shown and estimated. HIV mortality can be considered as a function of the following factors: 1) the incidence of hepatitis B, 2) the proportion of first-time detected persons with HIV-tuberculosis-viral hepatitis coinfection, and 3) the incidence of tuberculosis in pre-trial detention centers.