2020 № 9 Forecasting of labor resources in the system of primary health care in Kazakhstan
Primary health care is a highly effective and efficient way to tackle the root causes and risks of poor health
status, and to address emerging problems that threaten future health and well-being.
Goal: Develop a model for predicting the need for general practitioners (GPs) until 2030, taking into account various
input data in the equations describing the movement of labor resources in the form of “flows” and “ stocks “ using the
method of system dynamics.
Methods: The model was built using the Any Logic program, based on information about the availability of primary
health care doctors, demographic data and the general prevalence of diseases in the population. Three scenarios were
considered to predict the need for general practitioners. The base year was 2018, the forecast was carried out until 2030.
Results: All of three scenarios indicate that with the current number of graduated GPs, the shortage of primary care
physicians will be exacerbated. In general, the shortage can reach more than two thousand.
Conclusion: Government and medical universities need to take measures to correct the number of students in the specialty of “General Practitioner” in order to avoid a growing shortage of primary care physicians in the future until 2030.