2022 № 9 Methodological foundations of forecasting the spread of diseases in the world (review)
In modern conditions, the prediction of the morbidity of the population is becoming one of the most urgent tasks of public health worldwide. For state and international health services, with the help of forecasting the possible incidence and prevalence of various diseases in the general population, it becomes necessary to improve the system of providing specialized care due to the possibility of an updated calculation of the necessary resources.
Purpose of the study is to analyze the methodological basis for predicting the morbidity of the population based on the study and generalization of literary sources.
Materials and methods. The materials for the analysis were scientific publications on the issues of forecasting and modeling of morbidity in various subgroups of the population and territories of the Russian Federation and other countries. In the course of the research, such methods as comparative analysis, study and generalization of experience, bibliographic were used.
Results. Currently, there are a number of studies devoted to disease prediction, and the number of methodological approaches to predicting possible changes in the epidemiological situation in various territories is growing. The study provides an overview of existing methodological approaches to predicting the morbidity of the population in Russia and in the world community.
Findings. Thus, the analysis of the experience of predicting morbidity made it possible to determine the features of the use of certain mixed methods of forecasting different classes, groups and types of diseases, especially when identifying new viruses and infectious diseases.
2013 № 8 Dynamics of morbidity with a temporary disability in Russian Federation in 2007–2011 years (Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health Development of the Russian Federation, Moscow
Annotation: In the article there is presented an analysis of cases when there is obtained a disability in different categories of diseases within the past 5 year old period dated from 2007 till 2011 years among men and women. Study of dynamics of this indicator has revealed that there has been noticed an increase of disease cases among men obtaining disability and with women the number of cases when disability was obtained remained almost the same. There is presented a structure of diseases causing temporary disability and analysis of indicator dynamics in all classes and particular groups of diseases in the sex cut. There is evidence of importance of studying diseases causing temporary disability, especially taking in account predicted temporary decrease of number of cases and days of temporary disability in 2018 and 2019 years (compared to 2017 year) due to the unfavorable demographic situation forecast.