Modeling and forecasting
  • 2023 № 11 A mathematical model for assessing the contribution of viral hepatitis to the formation of infectious penitentiary syndrome.

    P u r p o s e : to study the role of viral hepatitis in the development and course of comorbid infection (disease caused by HIV, tuberculosis and parenteral viral hepatitis) in persons serving the penalty of deprivation of liberty.
    M e t h o d s . The indicators reflecting the epidemic situation of tuberculosis, HIV infection and parenteral viral hepatitis in institutions of the Russian penal system were analyzed. Correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted, followed by an analysis of the quality of the obtained regression models (calculation of the coefficient of determination).
    R e s u l t s . The following parameters have the maximum correlation between the predictors and the response function in this group of observations, with the subsequent exclusion of factors whose correlation with the variables involved in the calculations was higher than the correlation of these indicators with the response function: the incidence of hepatitis B per 100 thousand people (r = 0,86) [X1], the number of newly diagnosed hepatitis C patients in 2021 (r = 0,85) [X2], the proportion of newly diagnosed HIV-infected people in combination with tuberculosis and viral hepatitis (B, C, B+D), % (r = 0,85) [X3], the number of HIV patients receiving ART (r = 0,85) [X4], the incidence of tuberculosis in Pre-trial detention center (PTDC), per 100 thousand people (r=0,41) [X5], the number of newly arrested tuberculosis patients identified during the initial examination (r = 0,41) [X6]. The model was obtained: simulated mortality from HIV = –6,7 + 0,48 * X1 + 0,39 * X3 – 0,07 * X5 (R2 = 0,86). A similar model was obtained for the absolute values of the number of deaths; it involved the following parameters: the number of newly diagnosed patients with viral hepatitis B [X1], the
    number of newly diagnosed patients with viral hepatitis C [X2], the number of newly diagnosed HIV patients in combination with tuberculosis [X3], the number of patients burdened by premorbid background (injecting drug users) [X4]: The number of deaths from HIV= –0,36 + 0,06 * X1 + 0.02 * X2 + 0.36 * X3 + 0,03 * X4 (R2 = 0.91).
    C o n c l u s i o n . The association of HIV mortality rate with viral hepatitis and tuberculosis incidence is shown and estimated. HIV mortality can be considered as a function of the following factors: 1) the incidence of hepatitis B, 2) the proportion of first-time detected persons with HIV-tuberculosis-viral hepatitis coinfection, and 3) the incidence of tuberculosis in pre-trial detention centers.

    Authors: Sterlikov S. A. [8] Popova N. M. [2] Ponomarev S. B. [3] Mikhaylova Yu. V. [2] Mikhaylov A. Yu. [2] Averyanova E. L. [1] Pankova Ya. Yu. [1]

    Tags: hiv mortality1 infectious prison syndrome1 mathematical modeling1 viral hepatitis2

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  • Social aspects of health
  • 2020 № 8 The core vital values and requirements defining quality of life of country people are more senior than working-age of the Kaliningrad region

    Article is devoted to studying specific needs of persons also their interests affecting quality of their life are more senior than working-age. The purpose of work is to reveal the core vital values and requirements defining quality of life of country people is more senior than working-age of the Kaliningrad region. Within the project of Partnership “Northern measurement” in the field of health care and social wellbeing in 2019 the social research among 211 villagers aged from 60 up to 88 years is conducted. Methods of carrying out work: sociological, analytical, mathematical statistics. Distribution of age and gender structure of the interviewed population reflects universal trends. Social and demographic and medico-social characteristics of country people are studied. Results of a research showed that the quality of life of persons is more senior than working-age most is defined by priority vital values and requirements: state of health and level of material welfare; loneliness; difficulties in use of digital technologies; the disrespect shown from youth i.e. quite objective reasons which solution generally depends on the state measures for support of the senior generation. Significant first 10 vital values at elderly people during the different periods of time are tracked.

    Authors: Shikina I. B. [3] Chukhrienko I. Yu. [2] Elizov I. A. [2] Mikhaylova Yu. V. [2] Siburina T. A. [1] Mikhaylov A. Yu. [2]

    Tags: country people2 persons is more senior than working-age1 quality of life8 the social research1 vital values and requirements1

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