2020 № 1 Methods of Modelling and Prediction of Surgery Duration
Based on the analysis of foreign publications, a comparative characteristic of methods and models of prediction
of surgical operations duration was carried out. The importance of estimating the accuracy of prediction the duration of
operations for effective planning of the use of operating rooms and high-tech equipment is shown. Analyzed statistical and
regression methods to predict the duration of operations, and the use of artificial neural networks to estimate the duration
of an operation. Mathematical expressions are given, allowing to estimate duration of operation as a whole, as well as data
on prediction errors.
2020 № 1 Modern methods of analysis and forecasting of time series and use in medicine
The article is a review of Russian and foreign scientific publications related to the use of methods of analysis and
forecasting of time series in medicine. 112 major publications over the past 5 years, located on the Internet resources e-library
and PubMed, are considered. Examples of the application of such methods as exponential smoothing, regression analysis,
the ARIMA method and their variants for time series analysis are shown. Various approaches to mathematical modeling of
the time series are presented. The results of the article can be used to select a method of analysis and forecasting time series
depending on the tasks.